Publications

All peer-reviewed papers listed here are open-access publications or publicly available at ResearchGate. Citation metrics and selected conference abstracts may be found at Google Scholar.

Preprints under review

Bourdin, S., Hodges, K. I., Han, Y., Saffin, L., Baker, A. J., Methven, J., and Vidale P. L. RABTracks: Reanalysis-Augmented Best Tracks for Tropical Cyclones. Under review, Earth System Science Data.

Kendon, E. J., Artur, L., Engelbrecht, F., Van Niekerk, D., Ayala, C., Baker, A. J., Craig, A., Jaime, C., Meyer, R., Orozco-Meléndez, F., Razakamaharavo, V., Stephens, E., Vanya, C., Vincent, K., Vogeld, C., Dahadm, G., Sederam, R. A., Mahatokym, M., and Michaëlm, G. R. F. Opportunities for increasing resilience to changing severe weather in southern Africa: “Early Action and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity for All.” Under review, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Saffin, L., Hodges, K. I., Bourdin, S., Fiorino, M., Methven, J., Vidale, P. L., and Baker, A. J. An improved approach to identifying tropical cyclones in model data using the cyclone phase space: warm core, symmetric, and intensifying. Under review, Monthly Weather Review.

Published

Vessey, A. F., Baker, A. J., Marcellin-Honore, V., and Michelin, J. Combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability data to predict historical United States hurricane losses. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 26, 2133–2150 (2026).

Baker, A. J., Lockwood, J. F., Athanasiadis, P. J., and Vidale, P. L. Reduced future North Atlantic eddy-driven jet variability in high-resolution, fully coupled global climate models. Journal of Climate 39, 2925–2936 (2026).

Baker, A. J. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Geography Review 39, 2–5 (2025). [Invited outreach article]

Wang, Z., Rios-Berrios, R., Stern, D. P., Baker, A. J., Beucler, T., Camargo, S. J., Duvel, J.-P., Feng, X., Lee, C.-Y., Leroux, M.-D., Li, H., Macholl, J., Molina, M. J., Núñez Ocasio, K. M., Ramsay, H. A., Ritchie, E. A., Schenkel, B. A., Stansfield, A. M., Ayar, P. V., and Wisinski, E. On the Definition and Tracking of Tropical Cyclone Seeds from a Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 106, E1815–E1822 (2025).

Segura, H., Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, X., Weiss, P., Müller, S. K., Rackow, T., Lee, J., Dolores-Tesillos, E., Benedict, I., Aengenheyster, M., Aguridan, R., Arduini, G., Baker, A. J., Bao, J., Bastin, S., Baulenas, E., Becker, T., Beyer, S., Bockelmann, H., Brüggemann, N., Brunner, L., Cheedela, S. K., Das, S., Denissen, J., Dragaud, I., Dziekan, P., Ekblom, M., Engels, J. F., Esch, M., Forbes, R., Frauen, C., Freischem, L., García-Maroto, D., Geier, P., Gierz, P., González-Cervera, Á., Grayson, K., Griffith, M., Gutjahr, O., Haak, H., Hadade, I., Haslehner, K., ul Hasson, S., Hegewald, J., Kluft, L., Koldunov, A., Koldunov, N., Kölling, T., Koseki, S., Kosukhin, S., Kousal, J., Kuma, P., Kumar, A. U., Li, R., Maury, N., Meindl, M., Milinski, S., Mogensen, K., Niraula, B., Nowak, J., Praturi, D. S., Proske, U., Putrasahan, D., Redler, R., Santuy, D., Sármány, D., Schnur, R., Scholz, P., Sidorenko, D., Spät, D., Sützl, B., Takasuka, D., Tompkins, A., Uribe, A., Valentini, M., Veerman, M., Voigt, A., Warnau, S., Wachsmann, F., Wacławczyk, M., Wedi, N., Wieners, K.-H., Wille, J., Winkler, M., Wu, Y., Ziemen, F., Zimmermann, J., Bender, F. A.-M., Bojovic, D., Bony, S., Bordoni, S., Brehmer, P., Dengler, M., Dutra, E., Faye, S., Fischer, E., van Heerwaarden, C., Hohenegger, C., Järvinen, H., Jochum, M., Jung, T., Jungclaus, J. H., Keenlyside, N. S., Klocke, D., Konow, H., Klose, M., Malinowski, S., Martius, O., Mauritsen, T., Mellado, J. P., Mieslinger, T., Mohino, E., Pawłowska, H., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Sarré, A., Sobhani, P., Stier, P., Tuppi, L., Vidale, P. L., Sandu, I., and Stevens, B. nextGEMS: entering the era of kilometre-scale Earth System modelling. Geoscientific Model Development 18, 7735–7761 (2025).

Lockwood, J. F., Athanasiadis, P., Baker, A. J., Guentchev, G., Priestley, M. D. K., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., and Zappa, G. The effect of increasing model resolution on the Northern Hemisphere winter mid-latitude storm track: An equatorward shift due to contraction of the Hadley cell. Journal of Climate 38, 4539–4551 (2025).

Baker, A. J., Vannière, B., and Vidale, P. L. On the realism of tropical cyclones simulated in global storm-resolving climate models. Geophysical Research Letters 51, e2024GL109841 (2024).

Huang, H., Collins, W. D., Patricola, C. M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Ullrich, P. A., and Baker, A. J. Contrasting Responses of Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Geophysical Research Letters 50, e2023GL102959 (2023).

Athanasiadis, P., Ogawa, F., Omani, N.-E., Keenlyside, N., Schiemann, R. K. H., Baker, A. J., Vidale, P. L., Bellucci, A., Ruggieri, P., Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Roberts, C. D., Novak, L., and Gualdi, S. Mitigating climate biases in mid-latitude North Atlantic via increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet. Journal of Climate 35, 3385–3406 (2022).

Baker, A. J. Tropical cyclones: Global decline in frequency. Nature Climate Change 12, 615–617 (2022).

Baker, A. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K. I., J., Seddon, J., Vannière, B., Haarsma, R. J., Schiemann, R., Kapetanakis, D., Tourigny, E., Lohmann, K., Roberts, C. D., and Terray, L. Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global climate models. Journal of Climate 35, 5283–5306 (2022).

Bhatia, K. T., Baker, A. J., Yang, W., Vecchi, G., Knutson, T., Murakami, H., Kossin, J., Hodges, K. I., Dixon, K., Bronselaer, B., and Whitlock, C. A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Nature Communications 13, 6626 (2022)

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H., Hodges, K. I., Baker, A. J., Shaffrey, L. C., and Bhatia, K. T. What Governs the Interannual Variability of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones? Journal of Climate 35, 3627–3641 (2022).

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H., Hodges, K. I., Baker, A. J., Shaffrey, L. C., and Bhatia, K. T. Why Do Some Recurving Tropical Cyclones Impact Europe? Monthly Weather Review 150, 2553–2571 (2022).

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H., Hodges, K. I., Baker, A. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Bhatia, K. T., and Bourdin, S. Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European Post-Tropical Cyclone risk? Weather and Climate Dynamics 3, 1359–1379 (2022).

Baker, A. J., Hodges, K. I., Schiemann, R., and Vidale, P. L. Historical Variability and Lifecycles of North Atlantic Midlatitude Cyclones Originating in the Tropics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126, e2020JD033924 (2021).

Baldini, J. U. L., Lechleitner, F. A., Breitenbach, S. F. M., van Hunen, J., Baldini, L. M., Wynn, P. M., Jamieson, R. A., Ridley, H. E., Baker, A. J., Walczak, I. W., and Fohlmeister, J. Detecting and quantifying palaeoseasonality in stalagmites using geochemical and modelling approaches. Quaternary Science Reviews 254, 106784 (2021).

Bador, M., Boé, J., Terray, L., Alexander, L. V., Baker, A. J., Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Koenigk, T., Moine, M.-P., Lohmann, K., Putrasahan, D. A., Roberts, C., Roberts, M., Scoccimarro, E., Schiemann, R., Seddon, J., Senan, R., Valcke, S., and Vannière, B. Impact of higher spatial atmospheric resolution on precipitation extremes over land in global climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125, e2019JD032184 (2020).

Fabiano, F., Christensen, H. M., Strommen, K., Athanasiadis, P., Baker, A. J., Schiemann, R., and Corti, S. Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance. Climate Dynamics 54, 5031–5048 (2020).

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Baker, A. J., and Bhatia, K. T. How important are Post-Tropical Cyclones to European Windstorm Risk? Geophysical Research Letters 47, e2020GL089853 (2020).

Baker, A. J., Schiemann, R., Hodges, K. I., Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Strachan, J., and Vidale, P. L. Enhanced climate change response of wintertime North Atlantic circulation, cyclonic activity and precipitation in a 25-km-resolution global atmospheric model. Journal of Climate 32, 7763–7781 (2019).

Roberts, M. J., Baker, A. J., Blockley, E. W., Calvert, D., Coward, A., Hewitt, H. T., Jackson, L. C., Kuhlbrodt, T., Mathiot, P., Roberts, C. D., Schiemann, R., Seddon, J., Vannière, B., and Vidale, P. L. Description of the resolution hierarchy of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 model as used in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments. Geoscientific Model Development 12, 4999–5028 (2019).

Baker, A. J., Sodemann, H., Baldini, J. U. L., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Johnson, K. R., van Hunen, J., and Zhang, P. Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120, 5850–5862 (2015).

Baker, A. J., Mattey, D. P., and Baldini, J. U. L. Reconstructing modern stalagmite growth from cave monitoring, local meteorology, and experimental measurements of dripwater films. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 392, 239–249 (2014).

Baker, A. J. Report on the 22nd British Cave Research Association Cave Science Symposium. Speleology 18, 28–30 (2011). [Invited]

Whitaker, T., Jones, D., Baldini, J. U. L., and Baker, A. J. A high-resolution spatial survey of cave air carbon dioxide concentrations in Scoska Cave (North Yorkshire, UK): implications for calcite deposition and re-dissolution. Cave and Karst Science 36, 85–92 (2009).

Ph.D. thesis & essays

Baker, A. J. Lagrangian modelling of precipitation and speleothem proxy oxygen isotope systematics in the East Asian Summer Monsoon region. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Durham (2015).

Baker, A. J. Understanding stalagmite growth rate and palaeoclimate records. Speleology (2011). [Invited]

Baker, A. J. Analysis of geological structures and hydrological drainage characteristics at Washpool Crags Quarry (Weardale, UK) based on a digital outcrop model and regional climate data. One North East Studentship fieldwork and research report. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Durham (2011).

Manuscripts in preparation

Baker, A. J. Future tropical cyclone changes in a fully coupled global storm-resolving climate model. In preparation, Atmospheric Science Letters.

Scussolini, P., Lee, C.-Y., Ramsay, H., Oderiz, I., Ribberink, M., Feng, X., Baker, A. J., Molina, M. J., Sharma, S., Ritchie, E. A., Tam., F. l.-H., Wehner, M. What matters most? How specific features of tropical cyclones drive their impacts. In preparation, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science or Nature Reviews Earth and Environment.

Chun, K. et al. Advancing tropical cyclone research through kilometre-scale global models: insights from the WCRP hackathon. In preparation, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Leung, C. W., Baker, A. J., Vessey, A. F., and Priestley, M. D. K. Predicting European windstorm losses from open-source hazard, exposure and vulnerability data. In preparation, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Mckenzie, G. E., Hunt, K. M. R., Jones, T., and Baker, A. J. An XGBoost, SHAP and Symbolic Regression Pipeline to Predict North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Propagation Speed and Intensification Rate. In preparation, Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation.

Baker, A. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Lockwood, J. F., and Sutton, R. T. Extratropical cyclone frequency projections are sensitive to global climate model resolution. In preparation, Journal of Climate.

Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K. I., Baker, A. J., Roberts, M. J., and Vannière, B. Tropical cyclone characteristics in a near-10km global climate model. In preparation, Journal of Climate.

Vannière, B., Roberts, M. J., Hodges., K. I., Vidale, P. L., Camargo, S. J., Baker, A. J., and Feng, X. Reconciling future projections of tropical cyclone frequency in GCMs. In preparation.